India–US Trade Surplus May Cross $90 Billion: SBI

India’s trade surplus with the United States could exceed $90 billion annually, supported by a sharp rise in exports and stronger import momentum, according to a report by SBI Research. The report projects that Indian exporters may expand shipments of the top 15 product categories to the US by nearly $97 billion each year. When additional products are included, the total export potential is expected to comfortably surpass $100 billion annually.

Describing the recent tariff reductions as a 'golden opportunity', the report said lower duties would help Indian exporters deepen their presence in the American market and increase market share. 'India’s trade surplus with the US may thus cross $90 billion annually', it noted in its preliminary estimates.

The expected export surge, combined with a calibrated rise in imports, could significantly widen the trade gap in India’s favour. India’s trade surplus with the US stood at $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion in FY26 (April–December period), indicating strong underlying momentum. The report also estimates that the overall net impact on India’s GDP could be around 1.1 per cent, driven largely by export expansion.

Currently, the US accounts for nearly 20 per cent of India’s total exports, while its share in India’s imports stands at about 7 per cent. In services imports, however, the US has a higher share of around 15 per cent, highlighting India’s potential as a significant market for American goods and services. On the import front, the US has an annual goods export potential of over $50 billion to India, excluding services. India has agreed to reduce or eliminate tariffs on US industrial products and a broad range of agricultural and food items. Over the next five years, India plans to purchase $500 billion worth of US goods, potentially increasing imports by $55 billion.

Foreign exchange savings from tariff cuts could reach $3 billion, with further gains possible through import substitution.